Why India won’t hang Kasab?

For those of you living under a rock in Inner Mongolia or those living in an igloo built on a quickly melting iceberg, Ajmal Kasab is one of the terrorists (there were 9 others who cleared the Houri Test and were awarded the promised prize of 72 virgins)who attacked Mumbai 3 years ago and was apprehended.

Kasab has been imprisoned in India ever since. Being sentenced to death by a trial court, with the sentence upheld by Mumbai High Court does not seem to have affected Kasab’s appetite for glory and for err…tandoori chicken. If news reports from prison are to be believed, Kasab has been on the receiving end of glares and stares from fellow prisoners who have been served lauki (a vocal critic of this policy has been the Gandhi scion, of the lesser Gandhi family). This jealousy doesn’t seem to be dying anytime soon since err...Kasab himself is not going to die anytime soon.

In a rare press interview, India’s reticent, rarely talkative Prime Minister Manmohan Singh addressed questions, which he considered rather clichéd, on why the government has not executed Kasab despite a death penalty being served upon him. The highly educated man that he was, Singh presented the members of press with, not one, but several “reasonable” reasons to justify the government’s stance.

Who to hang?

India’s esteemed intelligence agencies and an extremely vibrant press seemed to have done their homework pretty well, in fact too well, in finding out Kasab’s identity. With some in the Indian establishment claiming credit for proving Kasab’s nationality, the ones that actually did the sleuthing, the Dawn newspaper, moved on to other mundane jobs, leaving the credit-claiming part to professionals with years of training and practice in the task. To compensate for this loss of work, the Indian media provided the public with half a dozen names, it had discovered, ranging from Azam Amir Kasav to Amjad Amir Kamaal, for the same person. Extremely persistent readers can view the complete list here. So the government faces the pertinent problem of deciding on who they are hanging although practically it would be the same person that was caught on camera. PM Singh emphatically stated that there was no point in arranging for an execution with the taxpayer’s money when you don’t know who you would be executing.

How to hang?
The PM also stunned members of the Press with his question on how to hang Kasab. He stated that there was progress in Indo-Pak relationship, (despite the lack of it in the Krishna-Hina relationship) and the dossier diplomacy was as irrelevant as a dosa in a Punjabi Dhaba. Singh expressed his concern that hanging Kasab might ring discord in the present positive state of affairs. Singh also stated that India’s Human Rights record might be tarnished if the country were to execute a death penalty. An angry reporter’s shoe thrown as a response to Singh’s statement failed to make a dent in his impeccably blue turban. The reporter was promptly removed before he could pose a threat to Singh’s human rights. Despite this, Singh could not answer conclusively, questions regarding the human rights of the Indian citizens killed and injured in the carnage.

Why to hang?
The eminent strategist that he was, Singh felt that it made better sense to let Kasab live as his present diet would anyway kill him from all the cholesterol he has gained. Singh also felt this would be a deterrent to prospective health-conscious Jihadists, who would like to maintain their fitness levels while they go meet their 72 virgins. Speaking of which Singh continued, preventing Kasab from dying on the noose would deny him the right over his 72 virgins if he died of natural causes. So letting him die of his own accord was actually a long term strategy to prevent the Mullahs from brainwashing their cadre with the promise of Paradise.

Singh left members of the Press spell bound and seemingly convinced with his list of “Reasonable” reasons on why Kasab could not and should not be hanged. Singh received rich accolades in the headlines of all major newspapers the next day that praised him as “an underrated politician”. The editorial pages however, used the same headline to criticise Singh’s explanation and demanded Kasab’s head on the noose at the same time emphasising that Afzal Guru and several others on the death row be brought to the book as well. Suggestions also include a proposal to modify existing space in the Parliament, which stays unused very often due to adjournments, as the new death row and unemployed MPs as hangmen.

At the Cobbler's

Here I was, back to the old cobbler. We have been meeting on a regular basis over the last year. In fact, if we had met any more frequently, the folks would’ve thought that we were about to announce our engagement or something, well, you know the funny ways of the world.
The reason I’ve been meeting this old man over the months was a new shoe I seemed to have acquired. We’ll get to the part about how I got that shoe in a bit. But for now, I just gotta tell you that this shoe was just like one of those old patients you see at the Doctor’s. You know the type, those that get their medicines prescribed on a Monday, buy them on Tuesday, only to be back on Thursday to the Doctor’s, on account of having developed “serious side effects”. That was the case with my shoe too.
The present problem showed up yesterday, while I was trying to desperately complete the 400m full circle run. A tight stitch on the inner part of the left shoe had probably been bothering the shoe’s tender heart for so long that it simply wasn’t up for the cardio challenge. It opened its mouth in one prolonged sigh, sucked in all the air it could and…unpredictably stayed open. My shoe, after this mishap, resembled a fish that just got out of water to dry itself, but forgot to bring its life equipment along.
So what do you know? I was back at the cobbler’s. As usual, this guy was pretty busy. What is it that makes cobblers busier than people from ostensibly busier professions, like barbers, for instance? Is it because that while bald men don’t visit barbers, most people wear some kind of footwear which needs fixing? He had this long queue waiting and I joined the tail lengthening it a bit further.
He sat there, like a king waiting to redress the grievances of his subjects. And one by one we went to him, taking our concerns with us. As I waited at the end of the line, there was a rumble and before I knew it, a huge motorbike with a huger guy driving it appeared on the scene. The cobbler seemed to know this guy; there was a hint of recognition in his eyes. The fellow probably had a shoe as problematic as mine. Despite this, the man did not stop his work. He went on mending the shoe in his hands as though he were an angel of Zeus who was sewing the sky up after the latest lightning bolt attack. Our biker was perturbed by his indifference. He was probably a descendant of a local prince and was carrying on the tradition of going on patrols around the city.
The cobbler’s persistent indifference troubled the guy and his anger seemed to radiate from his bike’s engine, which spewed gallons of smoke, reminding me of those angry smileys you get on a chat messenger. He removed his shoes, called the cobbler, and flung the shoes at his face along with a green slip of paper with Gandhi smiling out of it. I think it was the Gandhi that did the job. The cobbler, with his strong arms and even sharper eyes could’ve melted the guy down to jelly on the roadside and his folks would’ve most probably brought a teacup instead of a hearse to take him home. But that was not what happened. The man patiently took the shoes and added them to the pile of shoes waiting for his expert attention already. But the show wasn’t over yet. This bearish looking biker wanted an assurance that his job would be the first one to be done, royal privilege I presume. Facing grunts and animosity to his queued customers, the cobbler could do nothing but accept the order. Nobody seemed to complain overtly though some of them wanted to dismount the biker and shoot his shoes up his rear. The poor cobbler looked at us in a pitiful manner that reminded me of the moose trophy begging for the last ounce of mercy in its last possible opportunity. It turned about to be the last opportunity, not for the cobbler to beg for mercy, but for the big bully to use his “authority” over others. The moment he left the cobbler with his shoe and drove shoeless on the road, a tractor trailer, with the cobbler’s anguish and anger and desperation sitting at the wheel, ran all over him.
The part of the road had turned into a venue for Armageddon. Though I can’t say which was the victor, just right then, I knew that one of the forces were down, on the road. The cobbler had looked up momentarily from his profession-cum- ritual, to see what the source of the commotion was. He realised what had happened and came to the conclusion that the shoe he was holding was of no use to him anymore than it was to the dead man. I watched keenly as he got up from his seat of stone, moved over to the spot where the man lay on one side and his bike turned to aluminium scrap on the other. The cobbler threw the shoes on the dead man’s face and the green slip as well and walked quickly back to his altar to attend to the next subject.

India to Replace Red Tapism with White Tapism

After months of brainstorming sessions and recommendations from about a hundred committees, more than half of them chaired by Pranab da, the government has come up with a fool proof solution which they believe will solve the issues that haunt India.
A visibly relieved Pranab Mukherjee was seen walking out of the Parliament Building with satisfaction written across his face. When approached by our reporter, Pranab da was all smiles and said that the solution is a closely guarded secret and people will have to “wait and watch” till it unfolds on the front page of the Economist magazine.
Investigative journalism being his life breath, our reporter contacted the Economist only to be rendered speechless by the flurry of abuses (some of which are yet to be defined by Urbandictionaryforhindi.com) hurled at the Government of India for trying to curb the freedom of the press. As he calmed down, the official from the Economist revealed that the government had decided to introduce the policy of sticking up a white paper over any documentation it considered unpleasant or malicious.
The first instance of this would have to be the front cover of the Economist which had a map of India but with the state of Kashmir divided into 3 parts, occupied one each by Pakistan, India and China. The government wants this division to be covered with a blank white sticker. “They are simply not seeing the reality man” argued the official from the Economist adding that the information had been authenticated by veritable sources from the Pakistani Taliban, LeT and JeM.


While active members of the civil society such as Baba Ramdev have offered to go on a fast unto death in a boathouse on the Dal Lake till Kashmir was unified and land granted for his Ashram, intellectuals like Arundhati Roy and Arindham Chaudhry have been equally critical of the move. While Arindham Chaudhry flashed his characteristic smile and challenged the government to think beyond white stickers, Arundhati Roy felt that the move would be equivalent to shutting up the oppressed Kashmiris with a white tape on their mouths.
But present and former bureaucrats have welcomed the move. Speaking to our reporter, Shri.Prashant Mishra, a retired IAS officer felt that this would help remove the stigma of “red tapism” in the bureaucracy by replacing it with “white tapism”. He added saying that this move would improve India’s moral standing in the world as white represented peace. “Soon we would have white stickers all over the country. Even the electronic voting machines will come with a white sticker if the people don’t want themselves to know who they have voted for”, Mr.Mishra added.
Our reporter had to duck and dodge a white sticker over his mouth when he enquired if the reports of the CAG will also have white stickers all over it. As a reward for his agility, he was told that it was all part of the government effort to publish “white paper” on every activity it performs, in this case the white paper being quite literal.

Obama's Middle East Address- Challenges and Opportunities

Obama’s much awaited “Arab Spring” address has met with both criticism and appreciation from all quarters concerned. It has simultaneously been hailed as having got a touch of reality and criticized as having no understanding of reality. Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu who coincidentally is visiting the United States has reacted by saying that Obama’s proposal of an Israeli retreat to pre-1967 lines would leave Israel with “indefensible” borders. He has gone a step ahead and approved construction of 1,550 housing units in two Jerusalem settlements as a direct affront to Obama’s statement that "The dream of a Jewish and democratic state cannot be fulfilled with permanent occupation". The GOP has also criticized that Obama “threw Israel under the bus” and has handed Palestinians a victory even before negotiations have begun. But international observers have termed Obama’s speech as “the most detailed peace vision” but falling short of a formal peace plan, something that could disappoint many in the Arab world who had expected Obama to deliver concrete results after taking office in 2009. Netanyahu has said in a statement that "the viability of a Palestinian state cannot come at the expense of Israel's existence."

Obama’s persistent pointer to the settlement issue coupled with his vision of an Israeli retreat to pre-1967 lines with “mutually agreed swaps of land” would mean that most Israeli settlements in East Jerusalem would come under the Palestinian state. At the same time, the new “reconciliation agreement” between Hamas and Fatah has sent mixed messages across the Arab world. While many, if not most, view it as a first step towards gaining legitimacy in the UN General Assembly and forming a “unity government” Israel views it with suspicion and apprehension. Despite the agreement, Hamas has not indicated towards a change in its professed goal of obliterating Israel which might be a roadblock during the proposed September voting in the UNGA. None of the warring parties have promised an unconditional return to the negotiating table citing unresolved concerns.

The impact of the address would decide the future of not just Israel and Palestine but the whole of Middle East, a turbulent and mercurial region, owing to an Arab majority in terms of population but with Jewish military superiority. It presents both opportunities and challenges for the concerned parties.
The run up to the UNGA vote in September will determine if the union between Hamas and Fatah will lead to a unity government or end in divorce due to disagreements. In fact, the address itself may lead to disputes in the Palestinian camp about proceeding with the UNGA vote. Some might even want to cancel the vote and get back to negotiations, something that Israel might be depending on to prolong the dispute. Hamas might also have to amend its charter, as the dream of a Palestine replacing Israel will remain just that, a dream.

At the same time, the Israeli camp needs to introspect and decide on the future of the illegal settlements. The recent democratic movements in the Middle East are a harbinger of changes to come. Israel’s success so far, in steamrolling Palestinian interests in East Jerusalem and carrying on with the construction cannot be expected to continue under the present circumstances. Israel will also have to recognize the reconciliation deal between Hamas and Fatah, stop calling it as an impediment to peace talks and seize the opportunity to effectively end the death and destruction caused by rocket attacks.

The looming 2012 elections and opposition from the GOP for his speech should not pressurize President Obama into changing his stand on the issue. The negotiations, if and when they start, should not be an attempt to dissuade Palestine from seeking a vote for its legitimacy in the UNGA. They should rather determine the course Palestine should take after the vote and not the course of the vote itself. The US should also wake up to the reality of people’s movements toppling the very same dictators it had installed or befriended or both for its own strategic interests and should respect the will of the people. If Palestine manages to get around 170 or 180 votes in its favor (which it seems poised to get), the US would be expected to support the proposal in the UNSC and not veto it as doing so would merely inflame the anti-American sentiment the region has become notorious for.
Having shown incredible boldness and political will in changing the traditional and conventional American stance on Israel, President Obama will do well to make full use of the opportunity he himself has created, to change the perception among the Arab population about America. His Middle East speech, announcing billions of dollars in aid to the fledgling people’s governments in Egypt and Tunisia, increasing pressure on allies like Syria, Yemen and Bahrain to move towards democratic transformation and making a clear stand on the Israel-Palestine issue, can be seen as a timely attempt to reach out to the Arab populace after struggling to keep pace with the people’s movements in the region.

http://www.worldpress.org/Mideast/3745.cfm
http://www.eurasiareview.com/obamas-middle-east-address-challenges-and-opportunities-oped-21052011/
http://moderntokyotimes.com/2011/05/23/obamas-middle-east-address-challenges-and-opportunities/
http://www.silobreaker.com/obamas-middle-east-address-challenges-and-opportunities--jeysundhar-d-5_2264585332177502245
http://www.modernghana.com/news/329993/1/obamas-middle-east-address-challenges-and-opportun.html

Japan's Galapagosization

The year 2010 was an important turning point in Japan's timeline. It was the year that saw the small island nation toppled over from its second-largest economy status by its giant neighbor, the People's Republic of China. Japan still continues to be the third-largest in purchasing power. It is also the world's fourth-largest exporter and fifth-largest importer. And yet, this country has in the last year faced hit after hit on the global scene.

Politically, Japan's state of instability has worsened, with three prime ministers in four years and, despite the change of guard from LDP to DPJ last year, the new party in power is itself working with its second PM, Naoto Kan, who has suffered an early setback in the Japanese house of Councillor's Election in 2010.

Political problems notwithstanding, Japan still struggles to jolt an economy out of three decades of stagnation and rejuvenate it. Japan's flagship company, Toyota, had to suffer embarrassment when it was forced to recall more than 10 million vehicles leading to snowballing share values of auto firms. Despite government stimulus, unemployment and underemployment are at an all-time high.

Public debt is mostly held by local investors, but is 200 percent of the annual GDP—one of the highest in the industrialized world. This is standing proof, not only to Japan's high savings rate, which is good, but also to its demographic dividend, which tilts heavily in favor of the non-working, old aged who depend on social security and place a burden on the economy. Japan also has the maximum number of suicides of people under 30. This coupled with a very low total fertility rate of 1.3 has led to a decline in the population of the country despite their average life expectancy.

Japan, as noted by analysts, is suffering from a Galapagosization syndrome, whereby its advanced technology, in the field of mobile communications and most notably robotics, has evolved much faster than the rest of the world. This has led to advancements being incompatible for use elsewhere, as is especially in the case of Japanese mobile phones.

"Japan's cellphones are like the endemic species that Darwin encountered on the Galápagos Islands—fantastically evolved and divergent from their mainland cousins," explains Takeshi Natsuno, who teaches at Tokyo's Keio University. This phenomenon might have benefited Japan in the Meiji Restoration era, but in a globalized world, it stands out as a stark contrast, not necessarily on the positive side.

In addition to the technological isolation, Japan also faces a similar isolation in terms of its population. Like other developed countries, the Japanese are having fewer children and having them later in life. By 2025, the government projects that Japan will have one retiree for every two working-age Japanese. This greying trend, coupled with the country's low birth rate, mandates large-scale immigration to keep the economy and the jobs running.

Japan seems to be caught up in a web of xenophobia that is aggravating the problem. While other aging countries have resorted to large-scale immigration to resolve their demographic crises, it remains almost impossible for a non-native worker to obtain citizenship, despite the fact that the cities abound with guest workers and foreign residents.

Japanese workers are also reluctant to catch up to the wave of innovation and change that is rocking the world. They refuse to go abroad, even if for a while, to feel the pulse of the market, which Japan so badly depends on. The Wall Street Journal reported, "The Galapagosization of Japan continues. … A shocking two-thirds of the country's white-collar workers said they didn't want to work abroad … ever."

This has presented a bleak prospect to the Generation Y of Japan, who feel caught between giants such as the United States and emerging China. And stiff competition is comgin from South Korea in what used to be Japan's core competence, high-end electronics, posing a big threat to their future prospects and careers. They feel that their choices have narrowed. Millions have given up the goal of lifetime employment at a major corporation and become "freeters," flitting among temporary jobs with few, if any, benefits. This, along with the aging population that will need state support to survive, does not in any way seem similar to the Japan of the 1980s, flush with cash and poised to dominate the world.

The conservative shell of the mind has been a tough nut to crack, but recent attempts indicate a slew of reforms waiting around the corner. Prime Minister Naoto Kan proposes opening up the economy by bringing down tariff barriers and making the country more attractive to investors. His cabinet cut the corporate tax rate to 35 percent and is weighing the option of joining a U.S.-led free-trade zone, namely the Trans-Pacific partnership, which would bring down tariffs on commodities ranging from food to electronics.

But a mere reduction of tariffs would be meaningless without innovation in the economy. Japan's competence in the field of hybrid vehicles and industrial robots is sure to come in handy if it manages to make its technology compatible with the rest of the world, especially the United States. China's reverse engineering capabilities won't take more than a decade to catch up to the technical advancement Japan has taken decades to achieve.

Japan also needs to shed its dependence on manufacturing and move in to "sunshine sectors" such as green energy, software engineering and healthcare for its elderly. But it remains to be seen if a weak tottering government will take steps bold enough to lift the country of its misery. Japan seems destined to follow had-been powers like Britain and France if it doesn't change tracks soon. On the other hand, if Japan does manage to muddle through and handle the decline well, it can reinvent itself as a soft power on the world stage. But that is a big "if," considering the competition that Japan today faces.

Isolation or Engagement- Terrorism and American Muslims

The 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center dealt a blow to the sanctuary enjoyed by the United States through its geographical isolation. It also changed the American perspective with regards to Islamist terrorism, which occupied a pride of place in the global agenda from being a mere internal issue faced by countries that bordered Pakistan and Afghanistan. The decade that followed gave birth to the Global War on Terror and also inadvertently led to an increase in the number of terror-related incidents occurring on American soil.

The U.S. government reported 46 incidents of domestic radicalization and recruitment between 2001 and 2009, and that does not include half a dozen other incidents that might have happened away from government eyes. The efficiency of U.S. Homeland Security has been called into question numerous times by several bombing attempts and shootouts. The number and sophistication of the attacks have increased over the years, as it is evident from the Congressional report that states that there were an average of six attacks per year, and 13 in 2009. Only 25 percent of the identified plots were traced back to links with major organizations such as al Qaeda, but an analysis paper from the Bipartisan Policy Center points out that an increasing number of radicals are playing high-level operational roles in al Qaeda and allied groups.

The most popular and publicized of them have occurred in the last year: the Fort Hood shooting that shook the morale of moderate Muslims living in the United States, the failed attack of the Christmas-day bomber and most recently the Times square bomb. The last two were thwarted, not due to any specific pre-eminence on the part of the authorities, but rather due to technical incompetence in planning, design and execution of the plot. It is wishful thinking to believe that the terrorists, whether home-grown or foreign, would remain restricted to dirty bombs forever.

While the heavily funded War on Terror aims to deal with terrorism from abroad, the United States knows it cannot launch a similar campaign to weed out domestic terrorism, which is not merely financially but also ideologically funded by organized networks. Several U.S. educated members are among the higher ranks of al Qaeda, and their campaigns over the Internet have been instrumental in recruiting American Muslims.

A notable example in this case is the American-educated Anwar Al Awlaki (euphemized as the bin Laden of the Internet), who has been rallying support among disillusioned Muslims in the United States through his blog, a Facebook page and numerous YouTube videos. He is reported to be targeting educated American Muslims due to his command over English and ability to empathize with causes such as that of Palestine.

Al Awlaki's sermons were attended by three of the 9/11 hijackers. His sermons were also attended by accused Fort Hood shooter Nidal Malik Hasan. U.S. intelligence intercepted at least 18 emails between Hasan and al-Awlaki in the months prior to the Fort Hood shooting, including one in which Hasan wrote, "I can't wait to join you [in the afterlife]." In March 2010, Al Awlaki said in a videotape that jihad against America was binding upon every able Muslim. His fluency with English has led to him being considered more dangerous than Zawahiri or bin Laden himself, with whom he is often compared, as he does not need subtitles on his videos to indoctrinate young people in the West.

Ironically, U.S. involvement in the War of Terror has provided enough fodder to the jihadi front to campaign against American hegemony among the Muslims in America. Videos of bin Laden and Al Awlaki and their continued escape from U.S. forces have given them a cult status and a huge fan following. It is this mass appeal that the United States will find hard to destroy in the long run. The deep seated perceptions and attitudes among the Muslim and non-Muslim communities about each other have helped fuel a small but growing number of Americans more susceptible to extremist ideology.

U.S. counterterrorism agencies have woken up to the harsh reality of dealing with radical Islamists closer to home than ever before. However, steps to counter this threat are vague and far from being well defined. It is evident that the real threat is not the amateur homemade explosives and random shootings, but the ideology that gives birth to such radicalization. The government must, therefore, deal with the ideological prejudices among and against Muslims. The government must bring itself closer to the Muslim communities instead of trying to curb their civil liberties, as has been the case especially in airline security checks that sow more discord among the community against the United States. American Muslims cannot be treated as the enemies. They, in fact, have a vested interest in the fight against terrorism, as it would help restore the tarnished image of their community.

Thus, a nationwide, coordinated, community partnership framework is the real solution to the issue of domestic terrorism. The local leaders of the Muslim community must be brought to the table to talk with law enforcement, especially counter terrorism officials. Meetings should be conducted on a regular basis with all stakeholders and decision makers both from the government and the Muslim community.

The next logical step is to use this partnership to gather intelligence on future terror plots, extremist campaigning in mosques, community centers and other such gatherings. This would remove the need for law enforcement to be present in areas that would hurt Muslim religious sentiments. The communities are best suited to report unusual occurrences and radical propaganda, and they need to be educated in reporting it quickly. The law enforcement officials, on the other hand, need to be educated in Islamic customs, providing them religious and linguistic insight into the intelligence they receive and how best to deal with it without arousing violent reactions from within the community. A clear understanding of Islam is therefore indispensable to law enforcement in its fight against terror.

It is obvious that a mere drain of trillions of tax dollars into the bottomless pits of Afghanistan is not sufficient to combat the terror threat that America faces today. A multi-pronged counterterrorism strategy focussing both on terrorist bases abroad as well as involving the Muslim community in the United States to work in coordination with the counterterrorism agencies is the key. The United States will remain safe from radical Islamist terrorism only by implementing a strategy based on intelligence (as opposed to knee-jerk reactions) and coordinated law enforcement conducted in a pro-active and sustainable partnership with the American Muslim community.

Russia joins WTO- Win-Win for all

By signing an MoU on economic issues with the European Union, Russia has moved all the more closer to joining the WTO. Despite the usual norm of 5-7 years required for a country’s accession into WTO, in Russia’s case the negotiations have lasted for over 17 years and it appears that Russia would join the WTO in 2011.

Presently, Russia happens to be the largest economy outside the WTO and the seventh largest in the world. Russia applied for membership in the GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade) in 1993 but the negotiations remained half-hearted until Putin took the reins in 2000. The three years that followed saw energetic attempts to bring Russia inside the WTO. There were several factors behind Russia’s inching towards the WTO.

The most important of them was the intellectual maturity in Russia regarding the benefits of joining the WTO among the internationally oriented Russian economists and politicians after they witnessed the importance given to China after it joined the WTO. Secondly, there have been structural changes in the composition of Russian exports. The share of raw materials such as oil and natural gas has come down (In percentage terms) as compared to that of intermediary goods such as metals and chemicals. As a result, Russian steel industry has been consolidated with four of the biggest companies having a share of 80% in the total steel exports. But these firms face import quota restrictions from the EU which would no longer exist after Russia becomes a member of WTO. The chemical exports face dumping penalties in EU. Lobbying by these newly affluent groups is the main factor behind Russia’s increased efforts to join WTO. At this juncture, it would be wise to look into the benefits for both Russia and the rest of the world out of Russia’s entry into the WTO.

Russia is already a market economy and so WTO membership does not signify sweeping systemic changes as was the case with China. In spite of this, Russian entry into WTO would, as mentioned earlier, lead to increased demand for exports of metals and chemicals, thus expanding these sectors. At the same time, manufacturers would have to compete on a level playing field with the rest of the world. This would dramatically improve quality and efficiency in these sectors. Russia has maintained its stand on having a huge gap between the price of oil and natural gas in its domestic market and for exports. Though there is an agreement on increasing the domestic prices in the long run to match the marginal costs of Gazprom, there is no immediate commitment to do so thus not radicalizing the Russian public against this move. Surprisingly, the most significant effect (about 72 percent of the total medium-term welfare gains) will come not from improved market access but from Russia's own domestic liberalization of barriers to FDI in the business services sector (transportation, financial, and telecommunications). Russian total WTO-way trade in manufactures could double from $187 billion (in 2005) to $352 billion (based on the Rose Gravity Model calculations). In addition to this, Russia will benefit from the security that comes from trading with other members on the basis of an established legal framework, and on the market access commitments of the existing members of WTO. Russia will also be able to use the WTO's binding dispute settlement mechanism to resolve any disputes that might arise out of its engagement with WTO. Thus, despite concerns from the agricultural and domestic manufacturing sectors such as food processing and light industries which would face a stiff competition from imports if the economy is opened up, it is a fact that Russia stands to gain as a whole and Russian GDP is expected to expand by more than 3% by 2014.

As the European Union is by far Russia's biggest trade partner accounting for more than a third of all Russian imports and exports of goods, the European Union stands to gain greatly from Russia's accession to the WTO. In the first half of this decade, the West was understandably paranoid about the weaknesses in the Russian legal system due to its lack of transparency. But Putin’s efforts bore fruit as a new tax and customs code were introduced and other state laws were brought to conformity with WTO regulations in 2003. Eventually, Russia underwent a paradigm shift in its trade relations as the US followed by the EU declared Russia a market economy, a distinction even existing WTO member China is yet to achieve. As of now, Western complaints about Russia are few as Russia is already a free economy with average tariffs of a mere 11%. The West stands to gain considerably from this engagement as opening up of the booming Russian services sector combined with the supremacy of the West in this area would reap them huge harvests. The weak sectors in Russia such as food processing and light industries would serve as a huge market for US imports into Russia. This also stands to foster better relations between the erstwhile Cold War enemies. The US however, would need to amend the Jackson-Vanik amendment of 1974 to reap the benefits of opening up of the Russian market.


Moreover, this is probably the best opportunity the West might get in assuming a role in defining the functioning of renationalized Russian enterprises such as Gazprom, Rosneft and Transneft, which dominate the energy sector. On the diplomatic front, the West can use this as a leveraging option to mediate and resolve the Russian embargo on Georgia and Moldova. Most importantly, it will enable the West to demand enforcement should Russia renege on its commitments to WTO. Being a part of WTO will also coax Russia to improve law and order thus limiting corruption which is good for both Russia and the world.


As stated by European Council President Herman Van Rompuy, Russia’s accession to the WTO “is a paramount step forward and a step the world is closely watching.” It is a big win-win for both Russia as a trillion dollar economy that is literally next door to the vibrant economies of the EU and the WTO, which controls around 93% of the global trade.



http://newsblaze.com/story/20101211115333zzzz.nb/topstory.html
http://www.worldpress.org/Europe/3666.cfm
http://www.einnews.com/search.php?keywords=jeysundhar&makesearch=yes

Stop Appeasing China Now

The last decade has borne witness to the decline of the West coupled with the rise of the Asian giants, China and India. The concept of carrot and stick, once expertly used by the United States has now found an able wielder in China. Chinese hard power, especially, has become a game changer for meeting the future resource demands of the country through buying and bullying dictatorships in Africa. The Middle Kingdom, with its coffers enriched by a booming trade, is capable of and willing to muscle its way through, in order to ensure that its demands are met.

In the last few years and especially since the Beijing Olympics, China’s diplomatic and military assertiveness have been amply aided by its powerful economic muscle. This new-found confidence, not to mention that China was always vocal in voicing its demands, has its roots in the success of China’s pressure tactics during the Beijing Olympics. While various countries protested against choosing China as the venue keeping in mind China’s role in the Darfur conflict, support to the Myanmar’s Junta, and most important of all, the oppression of Tibetan activists, countries like France were planning a boycott of the Games. China blatantly threatened these boycotters with economic consequences and one by one, they gave in. Despite reports of restrictions placed on journalists, civil unrest in Tibet and Xinjiang, IOC President Jacques Rogge claimed that the Games had been truly exceptional.

The success of these pressure tactics has convinced China of their effectiveness, and this has been reflected in several of China’s moves. The aggressive show put up during the 60th Anniversary of the Foundation of the PRC was a feast to the Chinese PLA and a concealed threat to the West. It dealt a death blow to the “peaceful rise of China” rhetoric often stated by Chinese leadership in global forums. China also used it economic clout to resolve the border dispute with Russia with the latter ceding a small amount of territory. This paved the way for the completion of the ESPO oil pipeline supplying 15 million tonnes of oil per year for 20 years in exchange for a loan to Russian companies. China’s arm twisting was also visible in an effort made by the European countries to lift the arms embargo but was thwarted by the United States. The United States has, though, been unable to prevent the smuggling of technology from Pakistan to China.

Now that we talk about the US, it is worth mentioning that around 60% of China’s $2.5 trillion forex reserves are held in US government and institutional bonds. Never has the US owed so much money to any one single country. This is playing a definite role in shaping US’ China policy. This policy has seen greater shift under Obama who is trying to reconcile with China on several issues. Despite repeated mention of the issue of deliberate undervaluing of the Remnimbi and human right violations in Tibet, the US has restrained itself from lodging a formal complaint in WTO and top diplomats rarely, if ever, mention the Tibet issue while visiting China. The US stance in recent times has been one of non-intervention in China’s internal matters.

Japan’s case has been no different. Traditionally upfront and steady in its China policy, Japan had to bow down and give way in the recent spat over the arrest of a Chinese captain for trespassing into its waters. This has, in a twisted way, legitimized Chinese territorial claims in the East China Sea. Japan faced the classical Case 22 whereby it had to either swallow its national pride or risk losing the lifeline of its hybrid automobile industry. Japan, as in the case of all other countries that had conflicts with China, chose the former. China’s efforts in blocking the Nobel Prize awarding ceremony to express its objection to the prize awarded to Liu Xiaobao went in vain. Eventually, China has mounted a diplomatic campaign to prevent countries from attending the ceremony. As a result, countries such as Russia, Cuba, Iraq, Kazakhstan have decided not to be represented at the ceremony.
These successes have boosted China’s aspirations and ambitions and it has effectively started believing more in the stick than in the carrot. In fact, China wants the whole world to feed it with carrots while it uses the stick on all of them. And till now, the powers-that-be have complied. But there is an increasing consensus among analysts that this dangerous trend needs to stop. The Cold war saw a similar posturing by the US to exercise its will in the Third World, toppling independent governments, installing puppet democracies, utter disregard to human rights if there were economic and strategic interests involved et al. A sense of strategic déjà vu has been felt in international circles and the world, wearied by economic slowdowns and recessions certainly is not ready for conflict on a scale as large as the wars in Vietnam, Iraq or Afghanistan.
The success of China’s pressure tactics, if allowed to continue, will snowball into even more unpalatable behaviour from China and will set a dangerous precedent in the way countries resolve disputes. It is high time that the Chinese impression regarding its economic muscle being a panacea for its problems is negated. Now, who bells the cat? And how do we go about it?

The world powers, including the US and EU, can make a start by showing full presence at the Oslo Nobel Peace Prize awarding ceremony and thwarting China’s attempts to torpedo the event. The international community needs to reject the Chinese pressure, whatever be the immediate consequences, keeping in mind their long term national security in mind. The world also needs to show China that the factory needs the market as much as the market needs the factory or perhaps even more. This would place an effective check on China’s ambitions and aggressive measures. China’s neighbour and the other Asian giant, India needs to send a clear message to China by canvassing support for the Tibetan cause as well as for freeing Liu Xiaobao before the awards ceremony. India has already taken the first step in this regard when it did not stop the Dalai Lama from visiting Arunachal Pradesh despite repeated denouncements from China. The recent announcement by India that it would be attending the ceremony is a harbinger of times to come. Those countries that have, as of now, indicated against attending the ceremony should take India’s lead in the issue It is therefore important and imperative to send a message across to China that it cannot use its bullying tactics any longer.

http://www.worldpress.org/Asia/3663.cfm
http://www.china-defense-mashup.com/?p=9255
http://www.tibet.ca/en/newsroom/wtn/10849
http://newsblaze.com/story/20101210044622zzzz.nb/topstory.html
http://www.modernghana.com/news/307956/1/stop-appeasing-china-now.html
http://news1.ghananation.com/vivvo_general/59929-stop-appeasing-china-now.html
http://www.einnews.com/search.php?keywords=jeysundhar&makesearch=yes